安全

为识别事故关键致因并制定靶向防控策略，本文收集2015—2022年90起典型危化企业火灾爆炸事故，构建人-机-环-管-物(HMEM-M)因素体系，运用DEMATEL-ISM模型量化10项因素的因果强度、层级结构与交互路径。结果表明：安全培训欠缺是事故根源性因素；影响因素呈五层递阶传导：根源层(安全培训欠缺)、深层(人员安全意识薄弱、安全监管不严格)、中层(人员违规操作)、浅层(化工工艺设备故障、作业条件不满足需求)、直接层(防护设施缺陷、作业环境存在隐患、应急响应不当、危险物料);关键驱动因素(安全意识薄弱、监管不严、培训欠缺)通过传导因素(违规操作、设备故障、防护缺陷、环境隐患)触发事故。通过构建影响因素的多层递阶结构模型，提出安全防控策略，为危化企业火灾爆炸事故防控提供理论依据。

To identify the critical causes of accidents and formulate targeted prevention and control strategies, this study collected 90 typical fire and explosion accidents in hazardous chemical enterprises from 2015 to 2022, constructed the Human-Machine-Environment-Management-Material(HMEM-M) factor system, and used the DEMATEL-ISM model to quantify the causal intensity, hierarchical structure and interaction path of 10 factors. The results show that the lack of safety training is the root cause of the accident. The influencing factors exhibit a five-level hierarchical framework: root cause level(lack of safety training), the deep level(weak safety awareness of personnel, lax safety supervision), the intermediate level(personnel operating in violation of regulations), the proximate level(failure of chemical process equipment, working conditions not meeting requirements), and the immediate level(defects in protective facilities, hidden dangers in the working environment, improper emergency response, hazardous materials). The key driving factors(weak safety awareness, lax supervision, and insufficient training) trigger accidents through transmission factors(violation of operating procedures, equipment failure, protective deficiencies, and environmental hazards). By constructing a multi-level hierarchical structure model of influencing factors, safety prevention and control strategies are proposed, providing a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of fire and explosion accidents in hazardous chemical enterprises.