安全

为了解火灾爆炸事故的演化路径，为事故应急救援相关方提供相应的决策依据，基于“情景—应对”方法，选取情景状态、承载环境、应急措施和处置目标作为主要情景要素，并通过知识元理论构建情景概念模型，明确各要素之间的相互关系；再利用贝叶斯网络进行情景推演，确定各节点要素的先验概率和条件概率，借助Netica软件计算出各节点的状态概率；最后以山东石大科技石化有限公司“7.16”较大着火爆炸事故为例进行案例验证研究。研究获得事故的情景演变路径一般遵循泄漏、火灾和爆炸的顺序；通过推演得到发生概率较大的4个情景节点，并提出针对性较强的控制措施。可为类似事故应急救援和事后整改措施的制定提供参考。

In order to understand the evolutionary path of fire and explosion accidents and provide corresponding decision-making basis for emergency rescue parties involved in accidents, scenario states, carrying environments, emergency activities, and disposal objectives were selected as the main scenario elements based on the "scenario response" method. A scenario conceptual model was constructed using knowledge element theory to clarify the interrelationships between various elements.. Then, Bayesian network was used for scenario deduction to determine the prior probability and conditional probability of each node element, and the state probability of each node was calculated with Netica software. Finally, a case study was conducted using the "7.16" major fire and explosion accident of Shandong Shida Technology Petrochemical Co., Ltd. It was found that the evolution path of the accident scenario generally followed in the order of leakage, fire, and explosion; Four scenario nodes with a high probability of occurrence were got by deducing, and targeted control measures were proposed; These studies could provide reference for the development of emergency rescue and post rectification measures for similar accidents.