安全

为解决传统BZA-1方法在火炸药安全评估中难以适配多因素动态耦合效应、风险量化精度不足的问题，本文以提升火炸药生产系统危险度量化准确性为核心目标，针对传统方法中不可控系数K计算仅采用“人、机、环”三要素、忽略多因素动态耦合的核心局限，引入“人、机、料、法、环、管”六要素全维度风险框架，综合运用层次分析法(AHP)与模糊数学理论，构建多因素两两动态耦合的不可控系数计算模型，形成标准化的K值计算流程，实现对传统BZA-1方法的无缝优化。选取火炸药生产中喷雾造粒、驱溶混同等4个关键工序开展案例应用，结果显示：改进方法得到的系统综合不可控系数为0.38,高于传统方法的0.33,对高风险工序的风险识别敏感性显著提升，评价结果更贴合生产实际。该改进方案弥补了传统方法要素框架简化、忽略动态耦合的核心缺陷，大幅提升了火炸药生产系统风险识别、量化与动态响应能力，可为火炸药全流程安全管理提供科学支撑，也为其他高风险工业系统的安全评价提供参考。

In order to address the problems that the traditional BZA-1 method is difficult to adapt to the multi-factor dynamic coupling effect and lacks sufficient risk quantification accuracy in the safety assessment of explosives and propellants, in this paper, improving the accuracy of hazard quantification for explosive and propellant production systems was taken as core objective. Aiming at the critical limitation of the traditional method that the calculation of the uncontrollable coefficient K only adopts the three factors of “human, machine, and environment” while ignoring multi-factor dynamic coupling, a full-dimensional risk framework covering “human, machine, material, method, environment, and management” was introduced. By comprehensively using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and fuzzy mathematics theory, a calculation model for the uncontrollable coefficient with pairwise multi-factor dynamic coupling was constructed, and a standardized calculation procedure for the K-value is formed, realizing a seamless optimization of the traditional BZA-1 method. Four key processes in explosive and propellant production, including spray granulation and solvent removal mixing, were selected for case application. The results show that the comprehensive system uncontrollable coefficient obtained by the improved method is 0.38, higher than 0.33 from the traditional method. The sensitivity of risk identification for high-risk processes is significantly improved, and the evaluation results are more consistent with actual production conditions. This improved scheme remedies the core defects of the traditional method, such as oversimplified factor framework and neglect of dynamic coupling, and greatly enhances the risk identification, quantification and dynamic response capabilities of explosive and propellant production systems. It can provide scientific support for the whole-process safety management of explosives and propellants, and also serve as a reference for safety evaluation of other high-risk industrial systems.